ReNe: end of suburbia

Just watched yet another environmental issue-related documentary that was very well done and powerful. The full title is The End of Suburbia: Oil depletion and the collapse of the American dream, and was produced/directed by two Toronto filmakers Gregory Greene and Barry Silverthorn.

The focus of the film was on two issues, I'd say: suburbia and oil. Suburbia is driven by cheap oil, and so suburbia cannot be discussed without mentioning oil, but a large portion of the film also examines the peaking of oil (production) and its implications.

Back in Singapore, I've heard a little bit about suburbia, but I had imagined mostly in the context of the term 'suburbs', the 'residential' area where people live, as compared to 'commercial' and 'industrial' areas where people work. Like what the private estates in Yishun or Sembawang are to Shenton Way or Tuas. It was only after coming to North America that I found out more about what 'suburbia' in the North American context actually means, both from informative media and through a short experience (in St Louis). It's more than just a zoning label to describe a separate municipality; it's a concept.

It's also a misguided ideal, as this film (and many other people, books, etc.) expounds in detail. I'm not in a position to say very much about suburbia, having never really lived it, but I found myself nodding (figuratively) at parts during the film where suburban sprawl was discussed. The strip malls, the one-storied mega-malls with huge carparks, the ubiquity of car ownership (it's like a civil right). On the drive from St Louis to Toronto, I noticed huge empty tracts of land -- no surprise there; the US is huge -- and then the occasional building or house, almost literally, in the middle of nowhere. I was mystified; whoever lived or worked there would have to commute (i.e. drive) many tens of miles... I also noticed a lot of huge trucks on the inter-state highways. They probably formed half, or more, of the vehicular population on the road on a regular weekday.

Guess it's one thing to learn about such things intellectually, but like visiting a foreign culture, it's quite another to actually see it. I would say that living in St Louis was very comfortable; things were cheap and plentiful, and I can see the seduction of the so-called American dream.

Released in May 2004, the film was made very soon after the US invaded Iraq. Some of the experts interviewed in the film cited their doubts as to the veracity of the justifications for war, and its projected length (remember the WMDs that were never found, and Rumsfeld's claims that US soldiers would be welcomed with flower strewn streets?) "If there wasn't oil in Iraq, the US wouldn't have invaded it." A couple of the experts further predicted that the ongoing Iraq war, which they consider part of a more generalized war (or euphemistically, 'contest') for oil and gas resources, could easily last a lifetime, as a template for upcoming conflicts between nation-states to secure energy supplies.

Here's a ratio: the US gets 15% of their natural gas from Canada, but that 15% accounts for 50% of Canada's production. Clearly, it will only be a matter of time, given the diminishing stocks, that Canada will reduce exports to the US. When that time comes, what is going to happen to US electricity rates?

There were some interesting predictions mentioned in the film. One was about the peaking of oil production by Marion King Hubbert; he predicted that the US would peak in the late 1960s to early 1970s, and this came true in 1970. Experts also realized that though the price of oil after WWII was extremely cheap, oil prices would continue to rise, and rise rapidly, after the peaking of oil production. A tickertape on the TV footage in the film showed the price of crude oil to be $38 per barrel (accompanied by terms like 'record' and '!'). That was in late 2003. Curious, I googled around. Post-WWII, the price per barrel rarely exceeded $18.53 and until 2000, only exceeded $24 per barrel in times of crisis or conflict in the Middle East. Interestingly, only 50% of the time period from 1947 to 2006 have oil prices exceeded $18.53 per barrel. This time last year, the price of oil was between $50-60 per barrel. On 12 Mar 2008, that number hit $110.70 per barrel (all prices here in USD).

That's a very rapid rise in the past few years.

Global oil production has, very most probably, peaked already. The fact that it would peak is not even a matter of dispute anymore; it's only a matter of when. As Richard Heinberg says it in the title of one of his books, the party's over. And this would have far-reaching consequences, most fairly bleak, some not-so, but overall, it means that we simply cannot go on leading a non-sustainable lifestyle. Environmentalism is not for a small group of 'hippies' anymore.

At the moment, alternative energy sources cannot provide the same level of energy production and at the same kind of prices as oil, and the hype over hydrogen and ethanol is simply overdone. It takes more energy to produce hydrogen (energy that requires electricity produced from oil) than it provides, and the earth does not have enough land to grow the corn needed for ethanol required to maintain Americans' current lifestyle. That was what the interviewees were saying back in 2003, and this has shown to be even truer today. But the crux of the problem is that of excess -- Americans simply cannot afford to live the lifestyle they've been leading for the past half-century. Coming up with new fuels just so that one can continue driving cars (which require resources to make) on long six-lane roads (which also take resources to maintain) between their suburbs and city is not solving the problem at its fundamental level.

Good show. Go watch (promo).